Global warming inviting catastrophe

According to meteorologists 2007 could be the hottest year ever, thanks to a combination of global warming and El Niño effect (rogue ocean currents linked to atmospheric fluctuations in the Pacific that trigger massive storms and floods).
Studies predict 2007 to beat the previous record-holder, 1998, as the worst scorcher so far. This forecast is apparently based on the warming trend that is pushing up global temperatures by nearly two-tenths of a degree celsius per decade, and the return of El Niño effect.
The year 2006 was the sixth warmest year and the five warmest years over last century were 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 and the top 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1990. The warming trend is seen in both daily maximum and minimum temperatures, with minimum temperatures increasing at a faster rate than maximum temperatures. Since 1976, the global average temperature has risen sharply, at 0.18°C per decade.
Global concentrations of climate changing gases like carbon dioxide (CO2),nitrous oxide (N2O), Methane (CH4) are reaching at higher levels giving warning signals to human beings. The trend of growing emissions from industry, transport and power generation from burning fossil fuels such as oil and coal will further deteriorate the situation.
Global average concentrations of CO2 and N2O reached 399.1 parts per million (ppm) and 328.2 ppm at the end of 2006, which was an increase of 0.5 and 0.2 per cent respectively. The rate of increase in CO2 concentration is about 1.8 ppm per year.
The release of greenhouse gases and aerosols resulting from human activities are changing the amount of radiation coming into and leaving the atmosphere contributing to changes in climate. As the greenhouse gases absorb and emit heat, increasing their concentrations in the atmosphere will tend to have a warming effect.
If the present situation continues, global warming will increase in the future and laws under the current Kyoto Protocol are insufficient to take action against countries violating the protocol, as the developing countries currently have no obligation to cut such emissions under the pact. According to protocol, member countries (165) should take measures to reduce their overall emissions of green house gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008-2012.
In the month of September, 2006 the maximum area of the ozone hole over the Antarctic was recorded at 29.5 million km², slightly larger than the previous record area of 29.4 million km² reached in September 2000, which is a result of warming effect.
The phenomenon will results to the melting of glaciers and small ice caps, resulting in the increase in sea level. The global average sea level rise of the 20th century was 6-8 inches which varies from region to region.
Over a period of time, many parts of Sundarban islands in the Indian part of the delta region of the Ganga and Brahmaputra river were inundated. Rising Sea level and submergence of habitat also pose a threat to the area's 400 Bengal tigers as well as tribal population there. According to meteorologists, global sea level rose by 20cm over the last century and the rate could be between 0.5 and 1.4 meters by 2100.
Melting of Siachen glacier is another example of warming effect. Military activities of India and Pakistan in addition to global warming leads to melting of ice in the area. Siachen is the longest glacier in the non-polar regions from where the Nubara river originates and is a source of the Indus river, which caters to 75 per cent of its irrigational requirements to Pakistan. Siachen, along with several other major tributary glaciers, have reduced their volume by 35 per cent during the last twenty years and retreating at the rate of 110 metres per year. At the close of the 21st century, global temperature is estimated to go up by five degrees celsius, posing real danger to the living beings.
Even a small rise in the world's sea levels, predicted as a result of global warming, could make environmental refugees of some 56 million people in
developing countries.
Global average sea levels rose more rapidly from 1993 to 2003 than they did from 1961 through 2003, which was faster than climate models projected. By 2100, sea levels are projected to rise 1.6 feet to 4.6 feet (0.5 metre to 1.4 metre) above 1990 levels.
16.4 foot (5 metre) rise would force 16.7 million people in Bangladesh to
become refugees. Even the most extreme scenarios should be considered, because of the possibility that the thick ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica could disintegrate as the world warms. The loss of the Greenland ice sheet alone would raise sea level by nearly 23 feet (7 metres).

-Mahabaleshwar Honnemadike